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From chips to sunflower seeds and dumplings, Washington's sanctions tear away its own fig-leaf_我的网站

A | By Wang Gaofei, Wu Xinru (ECNS) -- Do sunflower seeds and dumplings pose a "threat" to U.S. national security? The question may sound absurd, but the latest additions to the so-called Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) entity list have raised questions about the breadth of the U.S. trade restrictions on Chinese goods. 43 Chinese companies have been added to the list in a single day, bringing the total to 187. From advanced chips to food and everyday apparel, the overreaching "big stick" of U.S. sanctions has finally ripped away its own fig-leaf. Is this move really driven by "human rights concerns" as the West claimed, or is it merely the result of political calculation by Washington's elites? What lies behind Washington's decision to escalate sanctions just one day after reaching a consensus? Josef Gregory Mahoney, an American scholar and professor of Politics and International Relations at East China Normal University, was recently invited to join News Lounge of China News Network where he unpacked the real intentions of U.S. sanctions. Sunflower seeds and dumplings land on the list: The absurdity and futility behind overreaching sanctions "This move is logically indefensible," Mahoney stated bluntly, "These consumer goods firms have absolutely no connection to the so-called 'forced labor' allegations. Claims are entirely fabricated and lack any factual basis." He argued that the U.S.' true intention is clear -- using groundless excuses to suppress China's competitive ordinary industries, disrupt the stability of China's industrial and supply chains, and protect the market share of its own traditional industries at the expense of Chinese enterprises' legitimate rights. When even sunflower seeds and dumplings are labeled as "threats," the veteran scholar of China-U.S. relations emphasized, it exposes the absurdity and desperation behind Washington's containment strategy. Turning to the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) itself, he was even more incisive: "In the context of international law, the UFLPA has no legitimate legal foundation. In fact, it violates basic WTO rules and international trade norms." He also added that the enforcement criteria of UFLPA are fatally flawed, adopting an unfair, rebuttable presumption that treats all related entities as guilty without evidence. When the law arbitrarily expands restrictions without clear, consistent judgment, it reverses the fundamental legal principle of presumption of innocence. To suppress China, Washington has disregarded legal principles and fallen into logical contradictions, going to extraordinary lengths to achieve its ends. Mahoney stressed: "It is blatant economic coercion, which could bring far-reaching harm," including erecting unnecessary trade barriers, hindering the flow of bilateral goods, and disrupting global industrial chain arrangements. Washington will hardly be able to bear the bitter fruits of these spillover effects. Backtracking the very next day: Political calculation trumps economic and trade consensus Just one day before the sanctions were announced, senior Chinese and U.S. officials in charge of economic and trade affairs had just held a video call, during which both sides stated that they were ready to jointly push for stable and sound China-U.S. economic and trade ties. Yet Washington brandished the big stick of sanctions almost immediately after those remarks. According to Mahoney, the timing is a deliberate and calculated provocation. "The U.S. uses engagement and escalation as two sides of the same policy. It aims to create unilateral leverage before the follow-up consultations, break the mutual trust just built and force China into unnecessary concessions, completely violating the consensus reached by both parties." The so-called "human rights concerns" appear to be a plausible pretext by the U.S. Yet in Mahoney's eyes, the sanction escalation stems almost entirely from domestic U.S. political calculation. As the midterm elections draw near, demonstrating toughness on China remains one of the few tactics to unite Washington's bitterly-divided political establishment. The U.S. Congress has consistently demanded more aggressive UFLPA enforcement, and expanding the entity list helps insulate the White House from criticism by China Hawks. Mahoney sees through this ploy: "It says nothing more than a convenient political fig leaf." But just how much of Washington's shame can this fig leaf possibly cover? Mahoney pointed directly to long-unresolved domestic issues in the United States, including sweatshop labor, prison labor and the abuse of migrant labor. Abroad, Washington has resorted to the aggression against Venezuela, against Iran, and supporting the genocide in Gaza. Plagued by deep-seated domestic ills and a dismal human rights record, Washington, though, has long posed as a self-appointed "world's policeman," but its actions only serve to expose its deep hypocrisy. Mahoney warned that, faced with election-driven pressures, continued festering of domestic governance problems in the U.S. could push Washington toward increasingly radical foreign policy stances. This sanction move, which represents a betrayal of previous consensus, has further eroded the already fragile China-U.S. mutual trust and introduced considerable uncertainties for subsequent high-level consultations. Truth long obscured: Heavy barriers hide the reality Western public discourse has long been awash with various false narratives targeting China, Xinjiang in particular. "One of the interesting things we know about the cotton industry in Xinjiang is that there's no 'forced labor,' period. One of the things that is sort of interesting is that anyone can go to Xinjiang. It welcomes all visitors." Mahoney iterated in the interview. During his recent visit to Xinjiang, Mahoney not only witnessed firsthand the highly-mechanized cotton-harvesting operations, but also toured local factories that produce harvesting equipment. Inside the production workshops, he saw working teams led by female engineers, and members included Uyghurs who were there as professionals. Everyone performed their respective duties, actively contributing ideas and energy to production with great enthusiasm. Nowhere did he see "forced labor" or "slave labor" decried in Western media narratives. Only by experiencing it firsthand and verifying through on-the-ground investigation can one get a glimpse of the truth. Mahoney noted that foreign visitors traveling to Urumqi, Karamay, and Kashgar are consistently struck by the region's stability, public order, and the well-being of its people. Not everyone can afford, unfortunately, to travel to China, as Mahoney introduced, especially many Americans who find their position eroding economically because of the very policies that the current administration is putting into place. "They're kind of trapped in economic decline." Some anti-China forces have long engaged in blame-shifting, seeking to externalize domestic governance conflicts and divert public discontent through media narratives. Trapped within pre-set information echo chambers, ordinary citizens lack the means to verify the truth by traveling to China. Exposed over time to one-sided, misleading and even false reports, they readily develop deep-seated negative stereotypes about China. Encouragingly, the current media landscape is quietly shifting. Mahoney noticed that a level of criticality has sort of entered the discussion now, which is creating an opening for people to take a more balanced look at China. In recent years, China has rolled out multiple visa-exemption policies, and the popularity of travelling to China continues to surge. In his view, this offers an excellent opportunity for people overseas to break free from false narratives and see a multifaceted, authentic China. At the end of the interview, Mahoney shared his observations on the future development of China-U.S. relations. In his view, how relations unfold between these two major powers has implications well beyond the two nations but also the global order. Mahoney explained how Europe, faced with persistently high risks of deindustrialization, is further impacted by the energy crisis amid regional conflicts stoked by the United States, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Iran-Israel conflict. A large volume of opportunities and investment therefore has flowed outward, forcing Europe to adopt trade-protectionist stances toward China, which brings complications to China's relationship with the EU. Mahoney said that a growing number of countries are seeing these developments. And they realize that if they want to avoid the boot heel of American hegemony, they have to find more constructive alternatives and the ability to advance according to their own agendas. "And these, in fact, are the alternatives that China is offering them." He held that some significant headwinds would be raised for the short-term development of China-U.S. relations and they would become more complicated. His position is that the United States is facing a relative decline and is being hollowed out from within by itself while still being engaged in imperial overreach globally. Increasingly, the world is building alternatives to that type of U.S. dominated model. On the contrary, China is probably the country best-positioned in the world to weather those types of risks and to even moderate them to some extent. He believes the country will work through this. "China has been a responsible major power that has committed itself to stability over conflict," said Mahoney. "If the U.S. can wake up to that realization, while at the same time figure out a way to change its behavior and commitment to structural inequalities, then I think we might find the two countries being able to move together in a way that would better result in a shared future for humanity," he concluded. 。 재정불안에 美 국채 장기금리 상승금 현물 4660弗대, 석달만의 최고 금 관련 ETF에도 개인 자금 유입 최근 미국 국채 금리가 19년 만의 최고 수준까지 오른 가운데 금값도 석 달 만의 최고치를 기록했다. ‘금리가 오르면 금값이 떨어진다’는 교과서적 관계가 뒤집힌 기현상이다. 금리 인상 요인이 미국 재정 불신으로 옮겨가면서 국채를 대체할 가치저장 수단으로 금이 부각된 결과이다. 최근 금 관련 상장지수펀드(ETF)에도 개인 자금이 대거 쏠리고 있다.25일(현지시간) 미국 뉴욕시장에서 현물 금 가격은 0.3%가량 오른 온스당 4660달러대에 거래됐다. 장중 3개월여 만의 최고치를 기록한 뒤 상승 폭을 줄였다. 한 달 전과 비교하면 15% 가까이 올랐다.같은 날 10년 만기 미국 국채 금리는 6.5bp(1bp는 0.01%포인트) 하락한 4.638%, 30년 만기 국채 금리는 5.6bp 하락한 5.174%를 기록했다. 소폭 하락했지만 여전히 높은 수준이다. 30년물은 18일 장중 19년 만의 최고치를 기록한 뒤 5%대에서 움직이고 있다. 10년물도 같은날 19개월 만의 최고인 4.75%를 찍은 뒤 4.6%대에 머물고 있다.이론상 금과 금리는 반대로 움직인다. 금은 이자나 배당을 낳지 않아 금리가 오르면 보유에 따른 기회비용이 커지고, 자금은 이자를 주는 국채로 이동한다.올해 상반기도 마찬가지였다. 금 선물 가격은 1월 말 온스당 5318달러로, 사상 최고 종가를 기록한 뒤 6월 약 3990달러까지 25%가량 떨어졌다. 미국과 이란의 갈등이 격화하며 국제유가가 뛰자 인플레이션 우려가 커졌고, 연방준비제도(Fed)의 금리 인상 가능성이 반영된 영향이었다.최근 국면은 다르다. 8월 들어 장기금리가 19년 만의 최고 수준까지 올랐는데, 금값도 15% 가까이 급등했다. 시장에서는 이 같은 기현상의 원인으로 금리 상승 요인의 변화를 주목한다.최근 국채 금리 상승 원인으로 주목되는 게 기간프리미엄(term premium)이다. 이는 장기 국채를 만기까지 보유하는 위험을 감수하는 대가로 투자자가 요구하는 추가 금리다. 재정적자가 불어나고 국채 발행 물량이 쏟아지면 투자자들은 수십 년 뒤까지 원리금을 온전히 받을 수 있을지 의심하게 되고, 그만큼 높은 금리를 요구한다.이 때는 금리 상승의 의미가 달라진다. 돈값이 비싸진 것이 아니라 국채 자산의 신뢰가 떨어졌다는 신호이기 때문이다. 이 때 자금은 국채를 떠나 또 다른 가치저장 수단인 금으로 향하게 된다. 즉, 재정 우려가 국채 금리와 금값을 동시에 밀어 올리는 구조다.이은택 KB증권 이사는 “장기금리가 재정 신뢰도에 대한 의심을 반영한다는 점을 생각하면 그 관계를 이해하기 어렵지 않다”며 “장기금리 상승 압력을 제어하기 쉽지 않다고 보는 투자자라면 금도 장기적인 관점에서 조금씩 모아갈 필요가 있다”고 말했다.이미 국내 투자자 자금은 빠르게 금 ETF로 유입되고 있다. 한국투자신탁운용의 ACE KRX금현물 ETF로 유입된 개인투자자 순매수 누적액은 연초 이후 2000억원을 넘어섰다. 8월로만 보면 655억원 이상이 들어왔고, 이달 모든 거래일에 하루도 빠짐없이 개인 순매수가 이어졌다. 24일 기준 순자산액은 4조2712억원으로 원자재 ETF 중 최대 규모다.수익률도 회복됐다. KRX 금 시세는 8월 첫 거래일부터 24일까지 g당 11.3% 올랐고, ACE KRX금현물 ETF는 같은 기간 12.76% 상승했다. 최근 1년과 3년, 상장 후 수익률은 각각 38.07%, 147.72%, 191.45%다.실물 금과 비교해 ETF의 접근성이 좋다는 점도 자금 유입 배경으로 꼽힌다. 골드바 등 실물 금은 매수 시 부가가치세 10%와 세공비가 붙고 보관 부담이 따르지만, ETF는 증권계좌에서 주식처럼 소액으로 매매할 수 있고 연금계좌에도 담을 수 있다. 남용수 한국투자신탁운용 ETF본부장은 “최근 주식형 자산의 변동성이 커지면서 금현물 ETF를 포트폴리오에 담으려는 개인투자자들의 수요가 늘어났다”며 “금현물 ETF는 장내 선물 상품과 달리 월물 교체에 따른 롤오버(Roll-over) 비용이 발생하지 않아 장기 보유 시 비용 효율성이 높다”고 말했다. 홍태화 기자。